Spread: NAC Breda (-1.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jong PSV Eindhoven (55%) · Jong PSV Eindhoven at 73¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 2

NAC Breda27¢Jong PSV Eindhoven73¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jong PSV Eindhoven

Consensus Traders

Jong PSV Eindhoven 55%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$14.1

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 73¢

+27% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJong PSV Eindhoven at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jong PSV Eindhoven

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

NAC Breda27%

Jong PSV Eindhoven73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jong PSV Eindhoven6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,833

Combined PnL+$56.03

NAC Breda5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,982

Combined PnL-$41.93

Jong PSV Eindhoven — 55%NAC Breda — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Jong PSV Eindhovenavg 57.4¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$54.56	50% 19845-20180 (40025)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	NAC Bredaavg 42.5¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$20.88	50% 26441-26261 (52702)
FL FlaznorpCTR	NAC Bredaavg 42.7¢	$613.89	$591.58	-$22.31	51% 17649-16650 (34299)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100	Jong PSV Eindhovenavg 57¢	$89.52	$92.66	+$3.14	47% 2625-2926 (5551)
poshposh<$100	Jong PSV Eindhovenavg 60¢	$90	$88.5	-$1.5	58% 11469-8326 (19795)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	NAC Bredaavg 40¢	$60	$61.5	+$1.5	76% 4239-1325 (5564)
VE Venusian<$100	Jong PSV Eindhovenavg 62.2¢	$14.05	$13.33	-$0.73	51% 317-303 (620)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Jong PSV Eindhovenavg 58¢	$5.81	$5.91	+$0.1	47% 10069-11208 (21277)
HRTradingCTR<$100	NAC Bredaavg 43¢	$5.78	$5.54	-$0.24	52% 6399-5797 (12196)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	NAC Bredaavg 41¢	$4.51	$4.51	+$0	58% 29915-21972 (51887)
US User7429<$100	Jong PSV Eindhovenavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.95	+$0.45	55% 8538-6853 (15391)

omnibus-076daa

Jong PSV Eindhoven

Invested

$2,060.74

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$54.56

Record

50%

19845-20180 (40025)

GoalLineGhostCTR

NAC Breda

Invested

$2,129.62

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$20.88

Record

50%

26441-26261 (52702)

FlaznorpCTR

NAC Breda

Invested

$613.89

Value

$591.58

PnL

-$22.31

Record

51%

17649-16650 (34299)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100

Jong PSV Eindhoven

Invested

$89.52

Value

$92.66

PnL

+$3.14

Record

47%

2625-2926 (5551)

poshposh<$100

Jong PSV Eindhoven

Invested

$90

Value

$88.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

58%

11469-8326 (19795)

ARocky33CTR<$100

NAC Breda

Invested

$60

Value

$61.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

76%

4239-1325 (5564)

Venusian<$100

Jong PSV Eindhoven

Invested

$14.05

Value

$13.33

PnL

-$0.73

Record

51%

317-303 (620)

topdogbigboi<$100

Jong PSV Eindhoven

Invested

$5.81

Value

$5.91

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

10069-11208 (21277)

HRTradingCTR<$100

NAC Breda

Invested

$5.78

Value

$5.54

PnL

-$0.24

Record

52%

6399-5797 (12196)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

NAC Breda

Invested

$4.51

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

29915-21972 (51887)

User7429<$100

Jong PSV Eindhoven

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.45

Record

55%

8538-6853 (15391)

Research grade

NeutralJong PSV Eindhoven at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jong PSV Eindhoven

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jong PSV Eindhoven wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.