Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (70%). 3 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

MVV Maastricht vs. Vitesse Arnhem: O/U 2.5

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (23%) · Over at 30¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 23%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$68.8

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 30¢

-46% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 13 top traders (23%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,835

Combined PnL-$43.98

Under10 traders

Total Value$781.91

Total Shares1,238

Combined PnL+$112.78

Over — 23%Under — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (12 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 55.6¢	$907.54	$874.05	-$33.49	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
VE Venusian	Underavg 43.2¢	$216.24	$275.14	+$58.91	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 52¢	$199.88	$223.56	+$23.68	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
RN1CTR	Overavg 54¢	$163.28	$157.23	-$6.05	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 50.2¢	$59.81	$84.63	+$24.82	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
CC ccllar<$100	Underavg 55¢	$66.55	$66.55	+$0	44% 62-79 (141)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 54¢	$48.31	$49.21	+$0.89	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 50¢	$28	$30.8	+$2.8	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
BI biying88888<$100	Underavg 62¢	$24.18	$21.45	-$2.73	44% 244-314 (558)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$21.09	$16.65	-$4.44	48% 1300-1386 (2686)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 45.1¢	$12.64	$15.4	+$2.76	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 46¢	$9.52	$11.38	+$1.86	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 58¢	$4	$3.79	-$0.21	46% 972-1163 (2135)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$907.54

Value

$874.05

PnL

-$33.49

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$216.24

Value

$275.14

PnL

+$58.91

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$199.88

Value

$223.56

PnL

+$23.68

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$163.28

Value

$157.23

PnL

-$6.05

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$59.81

Value

$84.63

PnL

+$24.82

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

ccllar<$100

Under

Invested

$66.55

Value

$66.55

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

62-79 (141)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$48.31

Value

$49.21

PnL

+$0.89

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$28

Value

$30.8

PnL

+$2.8

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

biying88888<$100

Under

Invested

$24.18

Value

$21.45

PnL

-$2.73

Record

44%

244-314 (558)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.09

Value

$16.65

PnL

-$4.44

Record

48%

1300-1386 (2686)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$12.64

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$2.76

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$9.52

Value

$11.38

PnL

+$1.86

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.79

PnL

-$0.21

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 30%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 13 top traders (23%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (12 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.