MVV Maastricht vs. Vitesse Arnhem: O/U 1.5

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over70¢Under30¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$49.67

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 69.5¢

-14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 14 top traders (29%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over70%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,460

Combined PnL+$54.85

Under10 traders

Total Value$830.1

Total Shares4,110

Combined PnL-$5.18

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 82% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 80.1¢	$735.06	$780.18	+$45.12	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
E4 e46m3	Overavg 81¢	$384.77	$403.77	+$19	40% 2676-3963 (6639)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 21¢	$203.28	$304.85	+$101.57	41% 725-1037 (1762)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 19.7¢	$368.89	$281.18	-$87.71	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 19.9¢	$126.74	$127.64	+$0.9	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$70.5	$74.02	+$3.52	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 86¢	$42.52	$40.29	-$2.23	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 85¢	$32.34	$25.3	-$7.04	46% 972-1163 (2135)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$32.74	$20.46	-$12.28	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$11.75	$8.81	-$2.94	47% 1186-1362 (2548)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$11.61	$5.44	-$6.17	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$6.08	$3.97	-$2.11	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$2.68	$2.97	+$0.28	41% 1175-1673 (2848)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$1	$0.75	-$0.25	48% 2522-2734 (5256)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$735.06

Value

$780.18

PnL

+$45.12

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

e46m3

Over

Invested

$384.77

Value

$403.77

PnL

+$19

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$203.28

Value

$304.85

PnL

+$101.57

Record

41%

725-1037 (1762)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$368.89

Value

$281.18

PnL

-$87.71

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$126.74

Value

$127.64

PnL

+$0.9

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.5

Value

$74.02

PnL

+$3.52

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$42.52

Value

$40.29

PnL

-$2.23

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$32.34

Value

$25.3

PnL

-$7.04

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.74

Value

$20.46

PnL

-$12.28

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.75

Value

$8.81

PnL

-$2.94

Record

47%

1186-1362 (2548)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.61

Value

$5.44

PnL

-$6.17

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.08

Value

$3.97

PnL

-$2.11

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.68

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.28

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 14 top traders (29%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 82% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.