MVV Maastricht vs. VVV Venlo: O/U 3.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 57¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$517.65
84.6¢ → 57.5¢
-32% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 78.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$246.38 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 78.4¢ | $1.0K | $757.28 | -$274.99 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 2.9¢ | $37.85 | $559.22 | +$521.37 | |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 84.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.0K | -$499.9 | 72% 2416-933 (3349) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $59.43 | $39.28 | -$20.15 | 59% 10226-7214 (17440) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 62.4¢ | $17.48 | $19.88 | +$2.4 | 49% 12659-13060 (25719) |
Invested
$1,070.11
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$246.38
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,549.08
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$499.9
Record
72%
2416-933 (3349)
poshposh<$100Invested
$59.43
Value
$39.28
PnL
-$20.15
Record
59%
10226-7214 (17440)
Invested
$17.48
Value
$19.88
PnL
+$2.4
Record
49%
12659-13060 (25719)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.