MVV Maastricht vs. VVV Venlo: 1st Half O/U 0.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 100¢ · $935 held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$935.29

Combined PnL

-$274.98

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$780.16

Total Shares781

Combined PnL+$9.22

Under4 traders

Total Value$155.13

Total Shares903

Combined PnL-$284.2

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Overavg 99¢	$970.84	$780.16	+$9.22	85% 5320-920 (6240)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 68.1¢	$234.96	$72.49	-$162.47	72% 2405-930 (3335)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$54.52	$39.48	-$15.04	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$52.91	$31.75	-$21.17	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 40.6¢	$96.93	$11.41	-$85.52	59% 45819-32178 (77997)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Over

Invested

$970.84

Value

$780.16

PnL

+$9.22

Record

85%

5320-920 (6240)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$234.96

Value

$72.49

PnL

-$162.47

Record

72%

2405-930 (3335)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.52

Value

$39.48

PnL

-$15.04

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.91

Value

$31.75

PnL

-$21.17

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$96.93

Value

$11.41

PnL

-$85.52

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.