De Graafschap vs. TOP Oss: O/U 2.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 71¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$107.19

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 71¢

+20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,067

Combined PnL+$75.66

Under6 traders

Total Value$312.55

Total Shares1,192

Combined PnL-$182.85

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
95 95de	Overavg 59¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$75	55% 12-10 (22)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Underavg 44.1¢	$404.96	$381.75	-$23.21	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.1¢	$310.74	$278.13	-$32.61
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$94.22	$103.61	+$9.4
poshposhARB<$100	Underavg 41.2¢	$180.89	$197.54	+$16.65	49% 1173-1237 (2410)
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.2¢	$115.87	$132.32	+$16.45
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.8¢	$65.02	$65.22	+$0.2
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 39.6¢	$201.2	$144.79	-$56.41	39% 563-895 (1458)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 41.7¢	$202.04	$106.67	-$95.37	44% 203-260 (463)
dips.ARB<$100	Underavg 37¢	$94.19	$83.95	-$10.24	47% 993-1122 (2115)
└ Under leg	Underavg 37¢	$54.76	$43.66	-$11.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 69¢	$39.43	$40.29	+$0.86
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$66.06	$35.45	-$30.61	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 69¢	$35.19	$33.66	-$1.53	45% 679-837 (1516)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$16.43	$17.48	+$1.05	35% 378-716 (1094)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 64¢	$10	$12.19	+$2.19	40% 442-667 (1109)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$9.67	$6.47	-$1.2	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$2	$1.7	-$0.3	42% 1031-1416 (2447)

95de

Over

Invested

$1,769.98

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$75

Record

55%

12-10 (22)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Under

Invested

$404.96

Value

$381.75

PnL

-$23.21

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

Both legs:

Under$310.7444.1¢-$32.61

Over$94.2255¢+$9.4

poshposhARB<$100

Under

Invested

$180.89

Value

$197.54

PnL

+$16.65

Record

49%

1173-1237 (2410)

Both legs:

Under$115.8741.2¢+$16.45

Over$65.0252.8¢+$0.2

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$201.2

Value

$144.79

PnL

-$56.41

Record

39%

563-895 (1458)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$202.04

Value

$106.67

PnL

-$95.37

Record

44%

203-260 (463)

dips.ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$94.19

Value

$83.95

PnL

-$10.24

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

Both legs:

Invested

$66.06

Value

$35.45

PnL

-$30.61

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$35.19

Value

$33.66

PnL

-$1.53

Record

45%

679-837 (1516)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.43

Value

$17.48

PnL

+$1.05

Record

35%

378-716 (1094)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$12.19

PnL

+$2.19

Record

40%

442-667 (1109)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.67

Value

$6.47

PnL

-$1.2

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.