Will De Graafschap win on 2026-11-14?

3 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 64¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 14

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.2K

Combined PnL

$412.75

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 63.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 15 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares35,144

Combined PnL+$705.68

No12 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares31,088

Combined PnL-$292.93

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO totoro3miyazaki	Yesavg 61.7¢	$16.8K	$17.2K	+$479.28	—
CUTJALENHURTS	Yesavg 60¢	$3.9K	$4.1K	+$226.51	52% 2645-2472 (5117)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 62.7¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	-$102.67	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$22.96
└ No leg	Noavg 39.5¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$125.63
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 37¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$31.72	37% 977-1669 (2646)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 37.9¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$90.13	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
RN1CTR	Noavg 38¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$75	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 40¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$174.05	37% 985-1642 (2627)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 38.6¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$48.66	36% 455-810 (1265)
rayvanmechelen	Yesavg 63.5¢	$974.51	$974.4	-$0.11	9% 30-286 (316)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 40.5¢	$545.66	$545.74	+$0.08	48% 912-1002 (1914)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 38.9¢	$452.52	$424.2	-$28.33	37% 968-1674 (2642)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Noavg 36¢	$268.61	$279.8	+$11.19	39% 121-186 (307)
tradecraftCTR	Noavg 39¢	$120.61	$112.87	-$7.74	31% 343-780 (1123)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$69.03	$69.92	+$0.89	36% 111-196 (307)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$31.68	$32.12	+$0.44	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$7.3	$7.39	+$0.09	60% 714-484 (1198)

totoro3miyazaki

Yes

Invested

$16,753.54

Value

$17.2K

PnL

+$479.28

Record

—

CUTJALENHURTS

Yes

Invested

$3,883.01

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$226.51

Record

52%

2645-2472 (5117)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,500.46

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$102.67

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

Both legs:

Yes$1,876.2862.7¢+$22.96

No$1,493.1139.5¢-$125.63

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$2,347.2

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$31.72

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$2,385.62

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$90.13

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,900

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$75

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$1,999.61

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$174.05

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$1,775.51

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$48.66

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

rayvanmechelen

Yes

Invested

$974.51

Value

$974.4

PnL

-$0.11

Record

30-286 (316)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$545.66

Value

$545.74

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$452.52

Value

$424.2

PnL

-$28.33

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

mouzsynapseCTR

Invested

$268.61

Value

$279.8

PnL

+$11.19

Record

39%

121-186 (307)

tradecraftCTR

Invested

$120.61

Value

$112.87

PnL

-$7.74

Record

31%

343-780 (1123)

biying99999CTR<$100

Invested

$69.03

Value

$69.92

PnL

+$0.89

Record

36%

111-196 (307)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$31.68

Value

$32.12

PnL

+$0.44

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$7.39

PnL

+$0.09

Record

60%

714-484 (1198)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 15 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.