FC Emmen vs. MVV Maastricht: O/U 3.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 62¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$3.0K
$16.65
60¢ → 62¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 60¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$17.02 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 60¢ | $208.5 | $206.76 | -$1.74 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 60.2¢ | $55.38 | $55.65 | +$0.92 | 50% 21821-22062 (43883) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $34.29 | $35.07 | +$0.78 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $7.09 | $6.67 | -$0.34 | 53% 2714-2387 (5101) |
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $4.75 | $4.75 | +$0 | 54% 818-692 (1510) |
Invested
$2,720.5
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$17.02
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$208.5
Value
$206.76
PnL
-$1.74
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$55.38
Value
$55.65
PnL
+$0.92
Record
50%
21821-22062 (43883)
Invested
$34.29
Value
$35.07
PnL
+$0.78
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$7.09
Value
$6.67
PnL
-$0.34
Record
53%
2714-2387 (5101)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.75
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
818-692 (1510)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.