Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (76%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Dordrecht vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 2.5
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 25¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Over
9
Over 22%
$2.7K
$66.74
59¢ → 24.5¢
-58% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Under 76%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 59¢ | $1.5K | $858.73 | -$681.16 | 53% 2166-1916 (4082) |
VE Venusian | Underavg 44.6¢ | $432.3 | $726.89 | +$294.59 | 37% 996-1715 (2711) |
LI Limousin | Underavg 34.8¢ | $282.98 | $610.38 | +$327.4 | 36% 979-1704 (2683) |
LI LightParadox | Underavg 45¢ | $198.9 | $282.88 | +$83.98 | 37% 1003-1721 (2724) |
MA MadridTime | Underavg 43.3¢ | $113.11 | $133.26 | +$20.15 | 38% 1015-1688 (2703) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 31.5¢ | $54.4 | $74.27 | +$19.87 | 49% 3969-4117 (8086) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $4.27 | $6.12 | +$1.85 | 42% 1031-1416 (2447) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $2.85 | $2.26 | -$0.59 | 46% 2762-3273 (6035) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $2.15 | +$0.65 | 48% 2164-2307 (4471) |
Invested
$1,539.89
Value
$858.73
PnL
-$681.16
Record
53%
2166-1916 (4082)
Invested
$432.3
Value
$726.89
PnL
+$294.59
Record
37%
996-1715 (2711)
Invested
$282.98
Value
$610.38
PnL
+$327.4
Record
36%
979-1704 (2683)
Invested
$198.9
Value
$282.88
PnL
+$83.98
Record
37%
1003-1721 (2724)
Invested
$113.11
Value
$133.26
PnL
+$20.15
Record
38%
1015-1688 (2703)
Invested
$54.4
Value
$74.27
PnL
+$19.87
Record
49%
3969-4117 (8086)
Invested
$4.27
Value
$6.12
PnL
+$1.85
Record
42%
1031-1416 (2447)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.26
PnL
-$0.59
Record
46%
2762-3273 (6035)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$2.15
PnL
+$0.65
Record
48%
2164-2307 (4471)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.