FC Dordrecht vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 1.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over83¢Under17¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$444.96

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 82.5¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,521

Combined PnL-$322.69

Under8 traders

Total Value$863.8

Total Shares4,110

Combined PnL-$122.27

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 75.2¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$321.78	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 15.9¢	$274.53	$301.91	+$27.37	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 37.1¢	$374.87	$176.68	-$198.19	36% 975-1701 (2676)
RN1CTR	Underavg 20.6¢	$85.99	$143.99	+$58	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 26.1¢	$81.64	$110.93	+$29.29	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 25.9¢	$144.62	$97.56	-$47.06	37% 991-1715 (2706)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 27.2¢	$20.58	$28.77	+$8.19	47% 936-1036 (1972)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 64¢	$21.55	$20.71	-$0.84	37% 1063-1796 (2859)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$3.6	$3.65	+$0.05	36% 477-850 (1327)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 89¢	$1.9	$1.83	-$0.07	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$0.23	$0.31	+$0.07	49% 3959-4107 (8066)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,876.86

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$321.78

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$274.53

Value

$301.91

PnL

+$27.37

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$374.87

Value

$176.68

PnL

-$198.19

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$85.99

Value

$143.99

PnL

+$58

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$81.64

Value

$110.93

PnL

+$29.29

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$144.62

Value

$97.56

PnL

-$47.06

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.58

Value

$28.77

PnL

+$8.19

Record

47%

936-1036 (1972)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$21.55

Value

$20.71

PnL

-$0.84

Record

37%

1063-1796 (2859)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

36%

477-850 (1327)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.