Spread: Heracles Almelo (-2.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold FC Dordrecht (25%) · FC Dordrecht at 88¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Heracles Almelo12¢FC Dordrecht88¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Dordrecht

Consensus Traders

FC Dordrecht 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$83.47

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 88¢

+24% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Dordrecht at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Dordrecht

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Heracles Almelo12%

FC Dordrecht88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Dordrecht2 traders

Total Value$739.21

Total Shares918

Combined PnL+$87.54

Heracles Almelo6 traders

Total Value$88.95

Total Shares321

Combined PnL-$4.07

FC Dordrecht — 25%Heracles Almelo — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	FC Dordrechtavg 71¢	$621.56	$709.1	+$87.54	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Heracles Almeloavg 28.7¢	$392.68	$406.15	+$13.46	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
└ Heracles Almelo leg	Heracles Almeloavg 28.7¢	$246.85	$271.17	+$24.32
└ FC Dordrecht leg	FC Dordrechtavg 74¢	$145.83	$134.98	-$10.86
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Heracles Almeloavg 29¢	$35.47	$35.47	+$0	47% 936-1037 (1973)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	FC Dordrechtavg 71¢	$30.11	$30.11	-$0	55% 502-403 (905)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Heracles Almeloavg 29¢	$28.48	$28.48	-$0	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Heracles Almeloavg 29.2¢	$9.76	$9.53	-$0.23	36% 979-1704 (2683)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Heracles Almeloavg 29¢	$9.29	$9.29	+$0	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Heracles Almeloavg 29¢	$8.58	$4.73	-$3.85	21% 60-224 (284)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Heracles Almeloavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.45	+$0	48% 2164-2307 (4471)

Flaznorp

FC Dordrecht

Invested

$621.56

Value

$709.1

PnL

+$87.54

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Heracles Almelo

Invested

$392.68

Value

$406.15

PnL

+$13.46

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

Both legs:

Heracles Almelo$246.8528.7¢+$24.32

FC Dordrecht$145.8374¢-$10.86

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Heracles Almelo

Invested

$35.47

Value

$35.47

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

FC Dordrecht

Invested

$30.11

Value

$30.11

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

sentrioCTR<$100

Heracles Almelo

Invested

$28.48

Value

$28.48

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

LimousinCTR<$100

Heracles Almelo

Invested

$9.76

Value

$9.53

PnL

-$0.23

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Heracles Almelo

Invested

$9.29

Value

$9.29

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Heracles Almelo

Invested

$8.58

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$3.85

Record

21%

60-224 (284)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Heracles Almelo

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

Research grade

NeutralFC Dordrecht at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FC Dordrecht

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Dordrecht wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.