Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (87%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Heracles Almelo win on 2026-11-14?
9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 14¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
No
12
No 75%
$1.8K
-$736.2
28.8¢ → 13.5¢
-53% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Yesavg 71¢ | $1.0K | $979.6 | -$64.62 | 55% 5402-4371 (9773) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 29¢ | $976.4 | $454.9 | -$521.5 | 53% 2162-1905 (4067) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 28.6¢ | $294.6 | $138.86 | -$155.74 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 28.2¢ | $53.23 | $56.63 | +$3.41 | 47% 936-1036 (1972) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 28.8¢ | $38.54 | $39.65 | +$1.11 | 31% 355-790 (1145) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 29.1¢ | $36.95 | $39.33 | +$2.38 | 36% 975-1701 (2676) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 29.4¢ | $37.84 | $36.09 | -$1.74 | 42% 1030-1415 (2445) |
 Secondhandvinyl<$100 | Yesavg 86¢ | $34.4 | $34.2 | -$0.2 | 76% 257-83 (340) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $19.04 | $19.18 | +$0.14 | 46% 2743-3256 (5999) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 27.5¢ | $5.69 | $6.52 | +$0.82 | 37% 991-1715 (2706) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $3.89 | $3.82 | -$0.07 | 37% 1002-1720 (2722) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $2.34 | $2.16 | -$0.18 | 38% 1014-1686 (2700) |
RN1Invested
$1,044.21
Value
$979.6
PnL
-$64.62
Record
55%
5402-4371 (9773)
Invested
$976.4
Value
$454.9
PnL
-$521.5
Record
53%
2162-1905 (4067)
Invested
$294.6
Value
$138.86
PnL
-$155.74
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Invested
$53.23
Value
$56.63
PnL
+$3.41
Record
47%
936-1036 (1972)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$38.54
Value
$39.65
PnL
+$1.11
Record
31%
355-790 (1145)
Invested
$36.95
Value
$39.33
PnL
+$2.38
Record
36%
975-1701 (2676)
Invested
$37.84
Value
$36.09
PnL
-$1.74
Record
42%
1030-1415 (2445)
Secondhandvinyl<$100Invested
$34.4
Value
$34.2
PnL
-$0.2
Record
76%
257-83 (340)
Invested
$19.04
Value
$19.18
PnL
+$0.14
Record
46%
2743-3256 (5999)
Invested
$5.69
Value
$6.52
PnL
+$0.82
Record
37%
991-1715 (2706)
Invested
$3.89
Value
$3.82
PnL
-$0.07
Record
37%
1002-1720 (2722)
Invested
$2.34
Value
$2.16
PnL
-$0.18
Record
38%
1014-1686 (2700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.