Will FC Dordrecht win on 2026-11-14?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 89¢ · $391 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$390.53
$0.03
87¢ → 88.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 87¢ | $114.62 | $114.62 | +$0 | 37% 977-1669 (2646) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 87¢ | $111.16 | $111.16 | -$0 | 53% 2108-1855 (3963) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 87.4¢ | $56.84 | $56.93 | +$0.09 | 37% 985-1642 (2627) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $36.82 | $37.03 | +$0.21 | 36% 950-1657 (2607) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $33.61 | $34 | +$0.39 | 37% 968-1674 (2642) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $26.8 | $25.99 | -$0.81 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $6.18 | $6.32 | +$0.15 | 55% 474-384 (858) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $2.39 | $2.39 | +$0 | 42% 1008-1381 (2389) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $2.09 | $2.09 | +$0 | 48% 2109-2267 (4376) |
Invested
$114.62
Value
$114.62
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
977-1669 (2646)
Invested
$111.16
Value
$111.16
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
2108-1855 (3963)
Invested
$56.84
Value
$56.93
PnL
+$0.09
Record
37%
985-1642 (2627)
Invested
$36.82
Value
$37.03
PnL
+$0.21
Record
36%
950-1657 (2607)
Invested
$33.61
Value
$34
PnL
+$0.39
Record
37%
968-1674 (2642)
Invested
$26.8
Value
$25.99
PnL
-$0.81
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
Invested
$6.18
Value
$6.32
PnL
+$0.15
Record
55%
474-384 (858)
Invested
$2.39
Value
$2.39
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
1008-1381 (2389)
Invested
$2.09
Value
$2.09
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2109-2267 (4376)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.