Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

NAC Breda vs. FC Emmen: O/U 3.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 26¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$14.39

Smart Money Entry

29¢ → 26¢

-10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,745

Combined PnL+$19.61

Over5 traders

Total Value$182.47

Total Shares451

Combined PnL-$5.22

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 57.2¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$255.18	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.6¢	$622.64	$1.0K	+$412.17
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.2¢	$1.1K	$433.03	-$667.35
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 26.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$56.98	36% 933-1644 (2577)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 27.1¢	$300.6	$293.9	-$6.7	37% 960-1662 (2622)
RN1CTR	Underavg 59.3¢	$197.14	$171.09	-$26.05	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 44¢	$94.74	$68.84	-$25.9	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 35¢	$52.5	$64.5	+$12	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$31.86	$33.63	+$1.77	56% 463-370 (833)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 44¢	$20.78	$20.31	-$0.47	42% 995-1363 (2358)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 31.5¢	$6.34	$14.5	+$8.16	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
BI biying99999<$100	Overavg 40¢	$13.33	$14.33	+$1	36% 107-193 (300)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 36.4¢	$17.41	$11.23	-$6.18	36% 948-1669 (2617)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 68¢	$5.95	$5.99	+$0.04	52% 820-759 (1579)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$3.16	$2.89	-$0.26	37% 970-1635 (2605)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,723.02

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$255.18

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Both legs:

Over$622.6446.6¢+$412.17

Under$1,100.3857.2¢-$667.35

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$1,112.02

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$56.98

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$300.6

Value

$293.9

PnL

-$6.7

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$197.14

Value

$171.09

PnL

-$26.05

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$94.74

Value

$68.84

PnL

-$25.9

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$52.5

Value

$64.5

PnL

+$12

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.86

Value

$33.63

PnL

+$1.77

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$20.78

Value

$20.31

PnL

-$0.47

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$6.34

Value

$14.5

PnL

+$8.16

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

biying99999<$100

Over

Invested

$13.33

Value

$14.33

PnL

+$1

Record

36%

107-193 (300)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.41

Value

$11.23

PnL

-$6.18

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.95

Value

$5.99

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.16

Value

$2.89

PnL

-$0.26

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.