Spread: NAC Breda (-1.5)

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold FC Emmen (11%) · FC Emmen at 72¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

NAC Breda28¢FC Emmen72¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Emmen

Consensus Traders

FC Emmen 11%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$68.3

Research grade

NeutralFC Emmen at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Emmen

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

NAC Breda28%

FC Emmen72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Emmen1 trader

Total Value$110.76

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$0.92

NAC Breda8 traders

Total Value$311.1

Total Shares880

Combined PnL-$67.38

FC Emmen — 11%NAC Breda — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	NAC Bredaavg 41.4¢	$677.82	$750.05	+$72.23	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
└ NAC Breda leg	NAC Bredaavg 41.4¢	$451.57	$567.07	+$115.5
└ FC Emmen leg	FC Emmenavg 59.4¢	$226.25	$182.98	-$43.27
TO topdogbigboi	FC Emmenavg 54¢	$111.68	$110.76	-$0.92	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
SN SnakeBallCTR	NAC Bredaavg 40¢	$99.49	$104.46	+$4.97	47% 895-994 (1889)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	NAC Bredaavg 45¢	$68.79	$64.2	-$4.59	36% 933-1644 (2577)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	NAC Bredaavg 40¢	$59.31	$62.28	+$2.97	35% 440-800 (1240)
FL FlaznorpCTR	NAC Bredaavg 43¢	$122.02	$49.34	-$72.68	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	NAC Bredaavg 39.3¢	$11.8	$11.1	-$0.7	36% 948-1669 (2617)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	NAC Bredaavg 37¢	$7.4	$7.4	+$0	37% 960-1662 (2622)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	NAC Bredaavg 42¢	$6.83	$6.83	+$0	37% 970-1635 (2605)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	NAC Bredaavg 14¢	$2.85	$5.5	+$2.65	46% 2653-3138 (5791)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

NAC Breda

Invested

$677.82

Value

$750.05

PnL

+$72.23

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Both legs:

NAC Breda$451.5741.4¢+$115.5

FC Emmen$226.2559.4¢-$43.27

topdogbigboi

FC Emmen

Invested

$111.68

Value

$110.76

PnL

-$0.92

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

SnakeBallCTR

NAC Breda

Invested

$99.49

Value

$104.46

PnL

+$4.97

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

LimousinCTR<$100

NAC Breda

Invested

$68.79

Value

$64.2

PnL

-$4.59

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

NAC Breda

Invested

$59.31

Value

$62.28

PnL

+$2.97

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

FlaznorpCTR

NAC Breda

Invested

$122.02

Value

$49.34

PnL

-$72.68

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

VenusianCTR<$100

NAC Breda

Invested

$11.8

Value

$11.1

PnL

-$0.7

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

NAC Breda

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

NAC Breda

Invested

$6.83

Value

$6.83

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

suntoriCTR<$100

NAC Breda

Invested

$2.85

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$2.65

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

Research grade

NeutralFC Emmen at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FC Emmen

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Emmen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.