Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (83%). 13 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will NAC Breda win on 2026-11-14?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 18¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 14

Yes83¢No17¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 87%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

34.3¢ → 17.5¢

-49% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes83%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,562

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,353

Combined PnL+$186.25

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 65.5¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$180.75	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65.5¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$330.06
└ No leg	Noavg 34.7¢	$922.19	$411.38	-$510.81
HONGKONGPEACHCTR	Noavg 33.4¢	$873.66	$1.7K	+$813.74	5% 5-98 (103)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 51.5¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$558.47	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68.2¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$252.73
└ No leg	Noavg 51.5¢	$1.2K	$349.22	-$811.2
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 33.4¢	$551.13	$1.1K	+$544.54	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
SU suntori	Yesavg 66.4¢	$835.53	$1.0K	+$182.82	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 43.1¢	$134.09	$208.63	+$74.54	35% 440-800 (1240)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 32.1¢	$141.16	$151.62	+$10.46	37% 960-1662 (2622)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 61.6¢	$134.86	$138.29	+$3.43	56% 463-370 (833)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 66.1¢	$143.67	$89.88	-$53.79	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.1¢	$111.55	$56.5	-$55.05
└ No leg	Noavg 64¢	$32.12	$33.38	+$1.25
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 45.8¢	$46.52	$65	+$18.48	47% 895-994 (1889)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 38.9¢	$29.3	$49	+$19.7	36% 948-1669 (2617)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 44.6¢	$38.4	$36.57	-$1.82	30% 335-776 (1111)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 44.8¢	$29.46	$28.91	-$0.54	37% 970-1635 (2605)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$25.36	$21.93	-$3.43	42% 995-1363 (2358)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$14	$15	+$1	52% 820-759 (1579)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 65.5¢	$15.06	$14.61	-$0.46	36% 933-1644 (2577)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$4.9	$4.9	+$0	60% 712-483 (1195)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$3.72	$3.72	+$0	48% 2074-2236 (4310)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,063.07

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$180.75

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Both legs:

Yes$1,140.8765.5¢+$330.06

No$922.1934.7¢-$510.81

HONGKONGPEACHCTR

Invested

$873.66

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$813.74

Record

5-98 (103)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$2,219.77

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$558.47

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

Both legs:

Yes$1,059.3568.2¢+$252.73

No$1,160.4251.5¢-$811.2

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$551.13

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$544.54

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$835.53

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$182.82

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$134.09

Value

$208.63

PnL

+$74.54

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$141.16

Value

$151.62

PnL

+$10.46

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$134.86

Value

$138.29

PnL

+$3.43

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$143.67

Value

$89.88

PnL

-$53.79

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

Both legs:

Yes$111.5566.1¢-$55.05

No$32.1264¢+$1.25

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$46.52

Value

$65

PnL

+$18.48

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$29.3

Value

$49

PnL

+$19.7

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$38.4

Value

$36.57

PnL

-$1.82

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$29.46

Value

$28.91

PnL

-$0.54

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$25.36

Value

$21.93

PnL

-$3.43

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$15

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$15.06

Value

$14.61

PnL

-$0.46

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

712-483 (1195)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$3.72

Value

$3.72

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.3%

17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$419.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

519.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.