Almere City FC vs. Helmond Sport: O/U 3.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (58%) · Over at 74¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 14

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

-$717.69

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 74¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares10,435

Combined PnL+$142.49

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares10,499

Combined PnL-$860.17

Over — 58%Under — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dartanyan150	Overavg 75¢	$7.5K	$7.5K	+$50	13% 4-26 (30)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 25¢	$2.5K	$1.8K	-$762.08	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 34.8¢	$299.55	$306.92	+$11.82	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.6¢	$123.99	$184.96	+$62.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.8¢	$173.03	$121.96	-$51.06
poshposh	Overavg 36¢	$86.52	$134.88	+$48.37	49% 1173-1237 (2410)
SU suntori	Overavg 51.7¢	$66.66	$113.36	+$46.7	46% 2762-3273 (6035)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 72.8¢	$73.45	$75.12	+$1.67	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 75¢	$37.5	$37.75	+$0.25	52% 852-801 (1653)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 48.6¢	$128.17	$30.35	-$97.82	36% 979-1704 (2683)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 89¢	$17.8	$14.2	-$3.6	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$9.25	$9.87	+$0.62	36% 481-851 (1332)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$4.8	$4.97	+$0.17	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 89¢	$4.45	$3.55	-$0.9	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$1.75	$0.69	-$1.06	37% 996-1715 (2711)

dartanyan150

Over

Invested

$7,500

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$50

Record

13%

4-26 (30)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$2,538.39

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$762.08

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$299.55

Value

$306.92

PnL

+$11.82

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

Both legs:

Over$123.9950.6¢+$62.88

Under$173.0334.8¢-$51.06

poshposh

Over

Invested

$86.52

Value

$134.88

PnL

+$48.37

Record

49%

1173-1237 (2410)

suntori

Over

Invested

$66.66

Value

$113.36

PnL

+$46.7

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$73.45

Value

$75.12

PnL

+$1.67

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$37.5

Value

$37.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

852-801 (1653)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$128.17

Value

$30.35

PnL

-$97.82

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$17.8

Value

$14.2

PnL

-$3.6

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.25

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.62

Record

36%

481-851 (1332)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.17

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$4.45

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.9

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.75

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$1.06

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.