Spread: Almere City FC (-2.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Helmond Sport (22%) · Helmond Sport at 71¢ · $815 held · ends Nov 14

Almere City FC29¢Helmond Sport71¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Helmond Sport

Consensus Traders

Helmond Sport 22%

Total Value

$814.85

Combined PnL

-$4.94

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 71¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralHelmond Sport at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Helmond Sport

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Almere City FC29%

Helmond Sport71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Helmond Sport2 traders

Total Value$531.87

Total Shares748

Combined PnL+$14.94

Almere City FC7 traders

Total Value$282.99

Total Shares1,003

Combined PnL-$19.87

Helmond Sport — 22%Almere City FC — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Helmond Sport. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlmere City FC 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Almere City FC 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Helmond Sportavg 68.8¢	$453.74	$468.23	+$14.49	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Almere City FCavg 32¢	$165	$144.38	-$20.62	37% 970-1635 (2605)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Almere City FCavg 27.7¢	$85.94	$88.41	+$2.47	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Helmond Sportavg 71¢	$63.19	$63.64	+$0.45	56% 463-370 (833)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Almere City FCavg 29¢	$27.26	$26.79	-$0.47	37% 960-1662 (2622)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Almere City FCavg 32¢	$12.15	$10.63	-$1.52	36% 933-1644 (2577)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Almere City FCavg 28¢	$8.47	$8.62	+$0.15	42% 995-1363 (2358)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Almere City FCavg 27¢	$2.43	$2.52	+$0.09	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Almere City FCavg 29¢	$1.61	$1.64	+$0.03	47% 895-994 (1889)

GoalLineGhost

Helmond Sport

Invested

$453.74

Value

$468.23

PnL

+$14.49

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

MadridTimeCTR

Almere City FC

Invested

$165

Value

$144.38

PnL

-$20.62

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Almere City FC

Invested

$85.94

Value

$88.41

PnL

+$2.47

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Helmond Sport

Invested

$63.19

Value

$63.64

PnL

+$0.45

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Almere City FC

Invested

$27.26

Value

$26.79

PnL

-$0.47

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

LimousinCTR<$100

Almere City FC

Invested

$12.15

Value

$10.63

PnL

-$1.52

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

sentrioCTR<$100

Almere City FC

Invested

$8.47

Value

$8.62

PnL

+$0.15

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Almere City FC

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$0.09

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Almere City FC

Invested

$1.61

Value

$1.64

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

Research grade

NeutralHelmond Sport at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Helmond Sport

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Helmond Sport. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlmere City FC 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Almere City FC 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Helmond Sport wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.