Spread: Almere City FC (-1.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Almere City FC (44%) · Almere City FC at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Almere City FC97¢Helmond Sport3¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Almere City FC

Consensus Traders

Almere City FC 44%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$402.9

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 96.5¢

+42% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlmere City FC at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Almere City FC

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Almere City FC97%

Helmond Sport3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Almere City FC4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,590

Combined PnL-$229.34

Helmond Sport5 traders

Total Value$154.08

Total Shares1,649

Combined PnL-$173.56

Almere City FC — 44%Helmond Sport — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Almere City FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlmere City FC 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Almere City FC 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Almere City FCavg 79.4¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$272.71	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
MA MadridTime	Almere City FCavg 48.8¢	$380.82	$405.38	+$24.56	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Almere City FCavg 51¢	$63.24	$59.52	-$3.72	55% 499-401 (900)
LI Limousin<$100	Almere City FCavg 48.5¢	$31.5	$54.03	+$22.53	36% 975-1701 (2676)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Helmond Sportavg 38.2¢	$55.91	$46.6	-$9.31	37% 1063-1796 (2859)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Helmond Sportavg 17.1¢	$205.86	$41.49	-$164.38	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Helmond Sportavg 48.5¢	$31.6	$33.53	+$1.93	42% 1030-1415 (2445)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Helmond Sportavg 13¢	$31.35	$28.94	-$2.41	36% 477-850 (1327)
poshposhCTR<$100	Helmond Sportavg 40.6¢	$2.91	$3.52	+$0.61	49% 1169-1236 (2405)

GoalLineGhost

Almere City FC

Invested

$1,912.42

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$272.71

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

MadridTime

Almere City FC

Invested

$380.82

Value

$405.38

PnL

+$24.56

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Almere City FC

Invested

$63.24

Value

$59.52

PnL

-$3.72

Record

55%

499-401 (900)

Limousin<$100

Almere City FC

Invested

$31.5

Value

$54.03

PnL

+$22.53

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Helmond Sport

Invested

$55.91

Value

$46.6

PnL

-$9.31

Record

37%

1063-1796 (2859)

FlaznorpCTR

Helmond Sport

Invested

$205.86

Value

$41.49

PnL

-$164.38

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

sentrioCTR<$100

Helmond Sport

Invested

$31.6

Value

$33.53

PnL

+$1.93

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Helmond Sport

Invested

$31.35

Value

$28.94

PnL

-$2.41

Record

36%

477-850 (1327)

poshposhCTR<$100

Helmond Sport

Invested

$2.91

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$0.61

Record

49%

1169-1236 (2405)

Research grade

NeutralAlmere City FC at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Almere City FC

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Almere City FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlmere City FC 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Almere City FC 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Almere City FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.