Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Helmond Sport win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $601 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$600.83

Combined PnL

-$6.2

Smart Money Entry

12.7¢ → 0.8¢

-94% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$337.13

Total Shares2,826

Combined PnL-$20.43

No4 traders

Total Value$263.7

Total Shares266

Combined PnL+$14.24

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$281.54	$259.99	-$21.55	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
VE Venusian	Noavg 87¢	$100.16	$114.2	+$14.04	37% 991-1715 (2706)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$96.76	$98.14	+$1.38	36% 477-850 (1327)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$43.31	$46.95	+$3.64	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
RN1<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$44.33	$43.22	-$1.1	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$25.87	$23.88	-$1.99	48% 2157-2304 (4461)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 97¢	$8.23	$8.14	-$0.08	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$4.33	$3.99	-$0.33	31% 355-790 (1145)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$2.51	$2.32	-$0.19	42% 1030-1415 (2445)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$281.54

Value

$259.99

PnL

-$21.55

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

Venusian

Invested

$100.16

Value

$114.2

PnL

+$14.04

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$96.76

Value

$98.14

PnL

+$1.38

Record

36%

477-850 (1327)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.31

Value

$46.95

PnL

+$3.64

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

RN1<$100

Invested

$44.33

Value

$43.22

PnL

-$1.1

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.87

Value

$23.88

PnL

-$1.99

Record

48%

2157-2304 (4461)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$8.23

Value

$8.14

PnL

-$0.08

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.33

Value

$3.99

PnL

-$0.33

Record

31%

355-790 (1145)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.51

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$0.19

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.9%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5195.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

5295.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.