Will Almere City FC win on 2026-11-14?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 73¢ · $542 held · ends Nov 14

Yes73¢No27¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$542.15

Combined PnL

$6.27

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 72.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$435.85

Total Shares597

Combined PnL+$20.41

No6 traders

Total Value$106.31

Total Shares400

Combined PnL-$14.13

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 69.4¢	$335.68	$353.03	+$17.35	53% 2076-1824 (3900)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 70.4¢	$72.86	$75.52	+$2.66	56% 460-366 (826)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$66.79	$57.14	-$9.65	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$17.19	$16.87	-$0.32	37% 956-1658 (2614)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 29.8¢	$18.25	$16.21	-$2.04	36% 944-1666 (2610)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 31.7¢	$11.42	$9.72	-$1.7	42% 989-1357 (2346)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$6.9	$7.3	+$0.4	53% 1337-1165 (2502)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$5.28	$5.09	-$0.19	30% 331-772 (1103)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$1.51	$1.27	-$0.24	48% 2063-2220 (4283)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$335.68

Value

$353.03

PnL

+$17.35

Record

53%

2076-1824 (3900)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.86

Value

$75.52

PnL

+$2.66

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$66.79

Value

$57.14

PnL

-$9.65

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$17.19

Value

$16.87

PnL

-$0.32

Record

37%

956-1658 (2614)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$18.25

Value

$16.21

PnL

-$2.04

Record

36%

944-1666 (2610)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$11.42

Value

$9.72

PnL

-$1.7

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.9

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

1337-1165 (2502)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$5.28

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0.19

Record

30%

331-772 (1103)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$1.51

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$0.24

Record

48%

2063-2220 (4283)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.