Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Wizards (56%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Magic (-3.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (55%) · Magic at 44¢ · $9K held

Magic44¢Wizards56¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 55%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

-$99.21

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 44¢

-9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic44%

Wizards56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic6 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares12,886

Combined PnL-$120.65

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,612

Combined PnL+$21.44

Magic — 55%Wizards — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wizards) and the top 1000 (7 on Magic) disagree here.

whaleWizards 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpWizards 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMagic 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Magic 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ComingBackCTR	Magicavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	-$144.69	61% 4000-2513 (6513)
HE Herdonia	Wizardsavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$29.98	54% 3481-3016 (6497)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Magicavg 47¢	$760.07	$768.16	+$8.09	47% 107-123 (230)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Magicavg 47¢	$720.32	$735.64	+$15.33	53% 627-550 (1177)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Wizardsavg 53.5¢	$604.48	$593.26	-$11.22	54% 404-348 (752)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Magicavg 48¢	$317.64	$315.1	-$2.54	51% 20672-19637 (40309)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 48¢	$166.55	$168.28	+$1.73
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 53¢	$151.09	$146.81	-$4.28
0X 0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72fe	Wizardsavg 53¢	$311.13	$308.19	-$2.94	50% 211-209 (420)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Magicavg 46.3¢	$292.87	$291.79	+$9.37	47% 13202-14757 (27959)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 46.3¢	$201.88	$211.46	+$9.58
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 52¢	$81.11	$80.33	-$0.21
VeryLucky888	Wizardsavg 51¢	$255	$260	+$7.5	58% 43710-31800 (75510)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Wizardsavg 53¢	$219.42	$217.52	-$1.89	51% 1601-1545 (3146)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Magicavg 47.5¢	$68.64	$68.98	+$0.34	50% 25032-24757 (49789)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 47.5¢	$44.9	$44.92	+$0.01
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51.8¢	$23.73	$24.06	+$0.33
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Magicavg 45¢	$22.5	$23	+$0.5	51% 4302-4131 (8433)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Magicavg 46¢	$9.66	$9.87	+$0.32	58% 29933-21984 (51917)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Magicavg 47¢	$8.46	$8.28	-$0.18	53% 4453-3889 (8342)

ComingBackCTR

Magic

Invested

$4,727

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$144.69

Record

61%

4000-2513 (6513)

Herdonia

Wizards

Invested

$1,183.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$29.98

Record

54%

3481-3016 (6497)

DolphinBallerCTR

Magic

Invested

$760.07

Value

$768.16

PnL

+$8.09

Record

47%

107-123 (230)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Magic

Invested

$720.32

Value

$735.64

PnL

+$15.33

Record

53%

627-550 (1177)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Wizards

Invested

$604.48

Value

$593.26

PnL

-$11.22

Record

54%

404-348 (752)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$317.64

Value

$315.1

PnL

-$2.54

Record

51%

20672-19637 (40309)

Both legs:

Magic$166.5548¢+$1.73

Wizards$151.0953¢-$4.28

0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72fe

Wizards

Invested

$311.13

Value

$308.19

PnL

-$2.94

Record

50%

211-209 (420)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$292.87

Value

$291.79

PnL

+$9.37

Record

47%

13202-14757 (27959)

Both legs:

Magic$201.8846.3¢+$9.58

Wizards$81.1152¢-$0.21

VeryLucky888

Wizards

Invested

$255

Value

$260

PnL

+$7.5

Record

58%

43710-31800 (75510)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Wizards

Invested

$219.42

Value

$217.52

PnL

-$1.89

Record

51%

1601-1545 (3146)

sentrioARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$68.64

Value

$68.98

PnL

+$0.34

Record

50%

25032-24757 (49789)

Both legs:

Magic$44.947.5¢+$0.01

Wizards$23.7351.8¢+$0.33

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$22.5

Value

$23

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

4302-4131 (8433)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$9.66

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

29933-21984 (51917)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$8.46

Value

$8.28

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

4453-3889 (8342)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wizards) and the top 1000 (7 on Magic) disagree here.

whaleWizards 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpWizards 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMagic 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Magic 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.