Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 69¢ · $722 held · ends Nov 12

Over32¢Under68¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$722.31

Combined PnL

-$3.76

Smart Money Entry

70.5¢ → 68.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$601.2

Total Shares856

Combined PnL-$3.76

Over1 trader

Total Value$121.11

Total Shares418

Combined PnL+$0

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Underavg 70.7¢	$364.97	$361.49	-$3.48	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Underavg 70¢	$144.9	$144.9	-$0	51% 3711-3543 (7254)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 29¢	$121.11	$121.11	+$0	30% 377-862 (1239)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 70.2¢	$90.58	$90.3	-$0.28	48% 659-706 (1365)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 70¢	$4.51	$4.51	+$0	37% 340-570 (910)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$364.97

Value

$361.49

PnL

-$3.48

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Under

Invested

$144.9

Value

$144.9

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

3711-3543 (7254)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$121.11

Value

$121.11

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

377-862 (1239)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$90.58

Value

$90.3

PnL

-$0.28

Record

48%

659-706 (1365)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$4.51

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

340-570 (910)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.