Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 54¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
2 arb excluded
$13.4K
-$20.24
54.7¢ → 53.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 54.7¢ | $7.7K | $7.6K | -$158.08 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $3.8K | $4.0K | +$214.45 | 48% 101-110 (211) |
KA KasonWongCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $940 | -$60 | 23% 7-24 (31) |
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $402.29 | $385.87 | -$16.42 | 14% 75-471 (546) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $273 | $272.13 | -$0.87 | 59% 3476-2367 (5843) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 56¢ | $196 | $194.25 | -$1.75 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44¢ | $77 | $77.88 | +$0.88 | |
GC GC-PARB<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $244.71 | $243.52 | -$1.2 | 20% 97-381 (478) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 56¢ | $196 | $194.25 | -$1.75 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44¢ | $48.71 | $49.27 | +$0.55 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $12.03 | $11.93 | -$0.11 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 53.3¢ | $4.26 | $4.28 | +$0.01 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.35 | -$0.1 | 32% 282-611 (893) |
Invested
$7,746.4
Value
$7.6K
PnL
-$158.08
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$3,774.4
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$214.45
Record
48%
101-110 (211)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$940
PnL
-$60
Record
23%
7-24 (31)
Invested
$402.29
Value
$385.87
PnL
-$16.42
Record
14%
75-471 (546)
Invested
$273
Value
$272.13
PnL
-$0.87
Record
59%
3476-2367 (5843)
Both legs:
Invested
$244.71
Value
$243.52
PnL
-$1.2
Record
20%
97-381 (478)
Both legs:
Invested
$12.03
Value
$11.93
PnL
-$0.11
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$4.26
Value
$4.28
PnL
+$0.01
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.35
PnL
-$0.1
Record
32%
282-611 (893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.