Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Wizards (53%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Pacers (-3.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (57%) · Pacers at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
7
Pacers 57%
$1.9K
$52.02
49.4¢ → 47.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 739633786CTR | Pacersavg 51¢ | $615.06 | $627.12 | +$12.06 | 6% 11-189 (200) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Pacersavg 48¢ | $572.64 | $620.36 | +$47.72 | 57% 3221-2429 (5650) |
MA MadridTime | Wizardsavg 49¢ | $506.41 | $496.08 | -$10.33 | 31% 373-839 (1212) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 48¢ | $65.25 | $70.69 | +$5.44 | 37% 339-567 (906) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Wizardsavg 50¢ | $67.75 | $65.04 | -$2.71 | 30% 373-861 (1234) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Wizardsavg 49¢ | $12.25 | $12 | -$0.25 | 48% 654-705 (1359) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Pacersavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.6 | +$0.1 | 31% 278-610 (888) |
Invested
$615.06
Value
$627.12
PnL
+$12.06
Record
6%
11-189 (200)
Invested
$572.64
Value
$620.36
PnL
+$47.72
Record
57%
3221-2429 (5650)
Invested
$506.41
Value
$496.08
PnL
-$10.33
Record
31%
373-839 (1212)
Invested
$65.25
Value
$70.69
PnL
+$5.44
Record
37%
339-567 (906)
Invested
$67.75
Value
$65.04
PnL
-$2.71
Record
30%
373-861 (1234)
Invested
$12.25
Value
$12
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
654-705 (1359)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.1
Record
31%
278-610 (888)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.