Spread: Pacers (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (50%) · Pacers at 55¢ · $350 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
6
Pacers 50%
$349.95
$3.72
56.1¢ → 54.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Pacersavg 56¢ | $150.08 | $150.08 | -$0 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
VE VenusianCTR | Wizardsavg 43.9¢ | $145.18 | $148.95 | +$3.77 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
73 739633786CTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 45¢ | $24.89 | $25.17 | +$0.28 | 6% 11-189 (200) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Pacersavg 56.7¢ | $20.97 | $20.72 | -$0.25 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Pacersavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.8 | -$0.05 | 32% 282-611 (893) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.23 | -$0.02 | 31% 376-842 (1218) |
Invested
$150.08
Value
$150.08
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$145.18
Value
$148.95
PnL
+$3.77
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
Invested
$24.89
Value
$25.17
PnL
+$0.28
Record
6%
11-189 (200)
Invested
$20.97
Value
$20.72
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$0.05
Record
32%
282-611 (893)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$0.02
Record
31%
376-842 (1218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.