Spread: Wizards (-3.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (25%) · Pacers at 57¢ · $629 held · ended Nov 12

Wizards43¢Pacers57¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 25%

Total Value

$629.31

Combined PnL

$29.94

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 57¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wizards43%

Pacers57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers2 traders

Total Value$293.4

Total Shares536

Combined PnL-$7.06

Wizards6 traders

Total Value$335.9

Total Shares823

Combined PnL+$37

Pacers — 25%Wizards — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Pacersavg 55.3¢	$281.12	$274.73	-$6.39	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Wizardsavg 33¢	$76.92	$109.56	+$32.63	47% 299-342 (641)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Wizardsavg 44.6¢	$105.34	$108.53	+$3.19	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 32.2¢	$65.49	$67.03	+$1.54	31% 410-923 (1333)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 34¢	$47.26	$45.87	-$1.39	69% 2587-1182 (3769)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pacersavg 68¢	$19.35	$18.67	-$0.68	49% 692-733 (1425)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 33¢	$2.29	$3.26	+$0.97	53% 290-259 (549)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.65	+$0.05	31% 410-897 (1307)

RN1

Pacers

Invested

$281.12

Value

$274.73

PnL

-$6.39

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

SnakeBallCTR

Wizards

Invested

$76.92

Value

$109.56

PnL

+$32.63

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

FlaznorpCTR

Wizards

Invested

$105.34

Value

$108.53

PnL

+$3.19

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

VenusianCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$65.49

Value

$67.03

PnL

+$1.54

Record

31%

410-923 (1333)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$47.26

Value

$45.87

PnL

-$1.39

Record

69%

2587-1182 (3769)

Pan9X<$100

Pacers

Invested

$19.35

Value

$18.67

PnL

-$0.68

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$2.29

Value

$3.26

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.