Spread: Wizards (-1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (80%) · Pacers at 60¢ · $584 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
5
Pacers 80%
$583.59
-$0
59¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Pacersavg 59¢ | $215.94 | $215.94 | +$0 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Wizardsavg 41¢ | $174.2 | $174.2 | -$0 | 31% 384-854 (1238) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Pacersavg 59¢ | $130.31 | $130.31 | +$0 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Pacersavg 59¢ | $48.39 | $48.39 | -$0 | 38% 351-584 (935) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Pacersavg 59¢ | $14.75 | $14.75 | +$0 | 49% 673-714 (1387) |
Invested
$215.94
Value
$215.94
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Invested
$174.2
Value
$174.2
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
384-854 (1238)
Invested
$130.31
Value
$130.31
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$48.39
Value
$48.39
PnL
-$0
Record
38%
351-584 (935)
Invested
$14.75
Value
$14.75
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
673-714 (1387)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.