Wizards vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 116.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 51¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$35.22

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 51¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,782

Combined PnL+$70.25

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,060

Combined PnL-$35.04

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 50¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$70.16	48% 101-110 (211)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Overavg 50¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$24.32	59% 440-301 (741)
VI vibing123CTR	Overavg 50¢	$473.5	$464.03	-$9.47	63% 1099-655 (1754)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 49.4¢	$224.51	$153.09	+$2.08	48% 1419-1557 (2976)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.4¢	$80.45	$82.31	+$2.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$71.5	$70.79	-$0.72
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 50¢	$125	$123.75	-$1.25	52% 490-447 (937)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 49¢	$4.41	$4.5	+$0.09	49% 683-724 (1407)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$3,384.17

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$70.16

Record

48%

101-110 (211)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Over

Invested

$2,431.74

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$24.32

Record

59%

440-301 (741)

vibing123CTR

Over

Invested

$473.5

Value

$464.03

PnL

-$9.47

Record

63%

1099-655 (1754)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$224.51

Value

$153.09

PnL

+$2.08

Record

48%

1419-1557 (2976)

Both legs:

Under$80.4549.4¢+$2.79

Over$71.550¢-$0.72

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$125

Value

$123.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$4.41

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.09

Record

49%

683-724 (1407)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.