Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 52¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 56%
$11.7K
$45.05
50.8¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nehcnehcCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | -$48.23 | 61% 4534-2843 (7377) |
IA ianf2026 | Underavg 51¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | +$38.12 | 50% 134-136 (270) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 50.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$17.55 | 54% 20343-17178 (37521) |
KA KasonWong | Underavg 50¢ | $1,000 | $1.0K | +$30 | 49% 31-32 (63) |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 51¢ | $326.4 | $329.6 | +$3.2 | 45% 14909-18248 (33157) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $241.73 | $244.25 | +$2.52 | 50% 49353-48879 (98232) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $98.1 | $99.13 | +$1.02 | 57% 22830-16911 (39741) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $35.52 | $35.89 | +$0.37 | 57% 22682-16912 (39594) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 50.5¢ | $24.61 | $25.1 | +$0.49 | 57% 25623-19105 (44728) |
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$4,726.99
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$48.23
Record
61%
4534-2843 (7377)
Invested
$3,888.24
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$38.12
Record
50%
134-136 (270)
Invested
$1,348.71
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$17.55
Record
54%
20343-17178 (37521)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$30
Record
49%
31-32 (63)
nigiri99Invested
$326.4
Value
$329.6
PnL
+$3.2
Record
45%
14909-18248 (33157)
Invested
$241.73
Value
$244.25
PnL
+$2.52
Record
50%
49353-48879 (98232)
Invested
$98.1
Value
$99.13
PnL
+$1.02
Record
57%
22830-16911 (39741)
Invested
$35.52
Value
$35.89
PnL
+$0.37
Record
57%
22682-16912 (39594)
Invested
$24.61
Value
$25.1
PnL
+$0.49
Record
57%
25623-19105 (44728)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.