Spread: Pistons (-9.5)

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (69%) · Wizards at 52¢ · $654K held · ends Nov 10

Pistons49¢Wizards51¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 69%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$654.3K

Combined PnL

$6.2K

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

11 of 16 top traders (69%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons49%

Wizards52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons5 traders

Total Value$300.7K

Total Shares619,970

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Wizards11 traders

Total Value$340.8K

Total Shares648,858

Combined PnL+$9.2K

Pistons — 31%Wizards — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wizards) and the top 1000 (13 on Pistons) disagree here.

sniperWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPistons 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO googleplayCTR	Pistonsavg 49¢	$302.7K	$299.6K	$-3.1K	3% 1-30 (31)
BR BreakTheBank	Wizardsavg 51¢	$284.8K	$293.2K	+$8.4K	40% 333-506 (839)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Wizardsavg 51¢	$17.4K	$17.3K	+$487.36	2% 3-120 (123)
TM TMingchan	Wizardsavg 51¢	$10.2K	$10.3K	+$100	— 2-15 (17)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Wizardsavg 51¢	$9.2K	$9.3K	+$30.53	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51¢	$6.7K	$6.9K	+$202.44
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$171.91
SI Siddhartha1	Wizardsavg 51¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	+$65.36	44% 34-43 (77)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Wizardsavg 51¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$76.23	3% 4-156 (160)
VeryLucky888	Wizardsavg 51.5¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$80	48% 61-65 (126)
FE fekefee	Wizardsavg 52¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$36.31	0% 0-28 (28)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Wizardsavg 51.6¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$7.13	5% 11-190 (201)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51.6¢	$631.75	$630.88	-$0.88
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 49.2¢	$418.5	$412.25	-$6.25
NM NM-PARB<$100	Wizardsavg 51.6¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$7.1	6% 11-164 (175)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51.6¢	$628.7	$627.86	-$0.85
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 49.2¢	$418.48	$412.23	-$6.25
nigiri99CTR	Pistonsavg 48¢	$958.08	$968.06	+$9.98	42% 28-38 (66)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 51.5¢	$770	$742.5	-$37.5	47% 82-92 (174)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 51.5¢	$515	$485	-$40
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51¢	$255	$257.5	+$2.5
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 51.6¢	$712.33	$625.23	-$10.31	49% 388-405 (793)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51.6¢	$408.32	$415.28	+$6.95
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 50.5¢	$223.21	$209.95	-$17.26
SU SunlineTicker	Wizardsavg 51¢	$384.54	$395.85	+$11.31	4% 5-123 (128)
RN1	Wizardsavg 49.6¢	$374.95	$389.06	+$14.1	54% 235-203 (438)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 51¢	$81.09	$75.52	-$5.57	5% 4-79 (83)
BI biying99999ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 51¢	$59.16	$58	-$1.16	6% 2-34 (36)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51¢	$29.58	$30.45	+$0.87
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 51¢	$29.58	$27.55	-$2.03
PA Pan9X<$100	Wizardsavg 50¢	$92.86	$26.63	-$2.36	48% 174-190 (364)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 51.6¢	$25.8	$23.75	-$2.05	67% 29-14 (43)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 52.5¢	$6.17	$5.76	-$0.41	19% 44-191 (235)
SE sentrio<$100	Wizardsavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.63	+$0.38	23% 49-166 (215)

googleplayCTR

Pistons

Invested

$302,679.19

Value

$299.6K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

1-30 (31)

BreakTheBank

Wizards

Invested

$284,804.91

Value

$293.2K

PnL

+$8.4K

Record

40%

333-506 (839)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Wizards

Invested

$17,404.62

Value

$17.3K

PnL

+$487.36

Record

3-120 (123)

TMingchan

Wizards

Invested

$10,200

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$100

Record

—

2-15 (17)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$9,231.16

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$30.53

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Wizards$6,726.1651¢+$202.44

Pistons$2,50551¢-$171.91

Siddhartha1

Wizards

Invested

$6,666.7

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$65.36

Record

44%

34-43 (77)

Multicoloured-Serf

Wizards

Invested

$4,465

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$76.23

Record

4-156 (160)

VeryLucky888

Wizards

Invested

$4,120

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$80

Record

48%

61-65 (126)

fekefee

Wizards

Invested

$3,776.24

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$36.31

Record

0-28 (28)

GC-PARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1,050.25

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$7.13

Record

11-190 (201)

Both legs:

Wizards$631.7551.6¢-$0.88

Pistons$418.549.2¢-$6.25

NM-PARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1,047.19

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$7.1

Record

11-164 (175)

Both legs:

Wizards$628.751.6¢-$0.85

Pistons$418.4849.2¢-$6.25

nigiri99CTR

Pistons

Invested

$958.08

Value

$968.06

PnL

+$9.98

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

Anon455ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$770

Value

$742.5

PnL

-$37.5

Record

47%

82-92 (174)

Both legs:

Pistons$51551.5¢-$40

Wizards$25551¢+$2.5

38791873984189ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$712.33

Value

$625.23

PnL

-$10.31

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

Both legs:

Wizards$408.3251.6¢+$6.95

Pistons$223.2150.5¢-$17.26

SunlineTicker

Wizards

Invested

$384.54

Value

$395.85

PnL

+$11.31

Record

5-123 (128)

RN1

Wizards

Invested

$374.95

Value

$389.06

PnL

+$14.1

Record

54%

235-203 (438)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$81.09

Value

$75.52

PnL

-$5.57

Record

4-79 (83)

biying99999ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$59.16

Value

$58

PnL

-$1.16

Record

2-34 (36)

Both legs:

Wizards$29.5851¢+$0.87

Pistons$29.5851¢-$2.03

Pan9X<$100

Wizards

Invested

$92.86

Value

$26.63

PnL

-$2.36

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$25.8

Value

$23.75

PnL

-$2.05

Record

67%

29-14 (43)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$6.17

Value

$5.76

PnL

-$0.41

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

sentrio<$100

Wizards

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.38

Record

23%

49-166 (215)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

11 of 16 top traders (69%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wizards) and the top 1000 (13 on Pistons) disagree here.

sniperWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPistons 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.