Spread: Pistons (-7.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (67%) · Pistons at 56¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 10

Pistons56¢Wizards44¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 67%

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

-$11.53

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons56%

Wizards44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons6 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares14,749

Combined PnL+$54.75

Wizards3 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares15,533

Combined PnL-$66.27

Pistons — 67%Wizards — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPistons 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Pistonsavg 56¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$68.54	30% 29-67 (96)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Wizardsavg 44¢	$6.7K	$6.6K	-$75.76	44% 34-43 (77)
AN Anon455	Pistonsavg 57¢	$291.95	$284.52	-$7.44	47% 82-92 (174)
FL Flaznorp	Pistonsavg 55¢	$203.74	$205.59	+$1.85	52% 242-227 (469)
LI LimousinCTR	Wizardsavg 42¢	$158.12	$167.53	+$9.41	24% 90-284 (374)
38 38791873984189	Pistonsavg 57.4¢	$344.79	$136.22	-$6.98	49% 388-405 (793)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pistonsavg 57.3¢	$43.57	$35.52	-$1.33	48% 174-190 (364)
nigiri99<$100	Pistonsavg 56¢	$11.2	$11.3	+$0.1	42% 28-38 (66)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 39¢	$2.15	$2.23	+$0.08	19% 44-191 (235)

HomeRunHazard

Pistons

Invested

$7,582.17

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$68.54

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Siddhartha1CTR

Wizards

Invested

$6,666.65

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$75.76

Record

44%

34-43 (77)

Anon455

Pistons

Invested

$291.95

Value

$284.52

PnL

-$7.44

Record

47%

82-92 (174)

Flaznorp

Pistons

Invested

$203.74

Value

$205.59

PnL

+$1.85

Record

52%

242-227 (469)

LimousinCTR

Wizards

Invested

$158.12

Value

$167.53

PnL

+$9.41

Record

24%

90-284 (374)

38791873984189

Pistons

Invested

$344.79

Value

$136.22

PnL

-$6.98

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

Pan9X<$100

Pistons

Invested

$43.57

Value

$35.52

PnL

-$1.33

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

nigiri99<$100

Pistons

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.08

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPistons 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.