Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Pistons (69%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Pistons (-5.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (83%) · Wizards at 32¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
6
Wizards 83%
2 arb excluded
$6.4K
$96.62
29.1¢ → 31.5¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 32%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99ARB<$100 | Pistonsavg 70¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$34.4 | — |
| └ Pistons leg | Pistonsavg 70¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$36.43 | |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 28.4¢ | $658.4 | $729.23 | +$70.83 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Wizardsavg 29.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$43.97 | — |
GA Gaditima | Pistonsavg 70.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$16.38 | — |
FO forecastication4CTR | Wizardsavg 29¢ | $785.9 | $826.55 | +$40.65 | — |
VE VenusianCTR | Wizardsavg 28¢ | $151.15 | $164.65 | +$13.5 | — |
65 6512395314597884CTR | Wizardsavg 28¢ | $112 | $122 | +$10 | — |
PA Pan9XARB<$100 | Pistonsavg 69¢ | $61.96 | $61.79 | -$0.17 | — |
| └ Pistons leg | Pistonsavg 69¢ | $40.02 | $39.73 | -$0.29 | |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 30.3¢ | $21.24 | $22.06 | +$0.12 | |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 28¢ | $54.73 | $59.62 | +$4.89 | — |
nigiri99ARB<$100Invested
$2,371.97
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$34.4
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$1,350.13
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$43.97
Record
—
Invested
$1,406.38
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$16.38
Record
—
Invested
$785.9
Value
$826.55
PnL
+$40.65
Record
—
Invested
$151.15
Value
$164.65
PnL
+$13.5
Record
—
Invested
$112
Value
$122
PnL
+$10
Record
—
Invested
$61.96
Value
$61.79
PnL
-$0.17
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$54.73
Value
$59.62
PnL
+$4.89
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.