Spread: Pistons (-26.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (40%) · Wizards at 91¢ · $243 held · ends Nov 10

Pistons10¢Wizards90¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 40%

Total Value

$242.88

Combined PnL

-$0.13

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 90.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons10%

Wizards91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards2 traders

Total Value$222.11

Total Shares245

Combined PnL-$1.23

Pistons3 traders

Total Value$20.77

Total Shares219

Combined PnL+$1.09

Wizards — 40%Pistons — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Wizardsavg 91¢	$135.98	$135.23	-$0.75	52% 242-227 (469)
nigiri99<$100	Wizardsavg 91¢	$96	$86.88	-$0.48	42% 28-38 (66)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pistonsavg 9¢	$101.02	$9.6	+$0.51	49% 388-405 (793)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 9¢	$6.53	$6.89	+$0.36	48% 174-190 (364)
RN1CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 9¢	$4.06	$4.29	+$0.23	54% 235-203 (438)

Flaznorp

Wizards

Invested

$135.98

Value

$135.23

PnL

-$0.75

Record

52%

242-227 (469)

nigiri99<$100

Wizards

Invested

$96

Value

$86.88

PnL

-$0.48

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

38791873984189CTR

Pistons

Invested

$101.02

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.51

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$6.53

Value

$6.89

PnL

+$0.36

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

RN1CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$4.06

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0.23

Record

54%

235-203 (438)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.