Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (78%) · Over at 45¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$63.6

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 44.5¢

-5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,325

Combined PnL-$66.17

Under2 traders

Total Value$370.18

Total Shares657

Combined PnL+$2.57

Over — 78%Under — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$13.46	54% 18309-15408 (33717)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$771.36	$800.15	+$28.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.8¢	$394.62	$379.29	-$15.33
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 48¢	$514	$471.17	-$42.83	46% 5254-6098 (11352)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Underavg 56.2¢	$337.43	$339	+$1.57	50% 545-541 (1086)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 45.5¢	$227.5	$217.5	-$10	58% 47031-33914 (80945)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 45.9¢	$170.16	$163.24	-$6.92	48% 61866-66730 (128596)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 45¢	$160.01	$154.74	-$5.28	64% 10065-5621 (15686)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$30.19	$31.18	+$0.99	53% 2616-2309 (4925)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$9.6	$8.6	-$1	56% 8098-6422 (14520)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.2	-$0.15	52% 8836-8034 (16870)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$1.29	$1.3	+$0.01	51% 26313-24941 (51254)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,165.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$13.46

Record

54%

18309-15408 (33717)

Both legs:

Under$771.3653¢+$28.79

Over$394.6245.8¢-$15.33

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$514

Value

$471.17

PnL

-$42.83

Record

46%

5254-6098 (11352)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Under

Invested

$337.43

Value

$339

PnL

+$1.57

Record

50%

545-541 (1086)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$227.5

Value

$217.5

PnL

-$10

Record

58%

47031-33914 (80945)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$170.16

Value

$163.24

PnL

-$6.92

Record

48%

61866-66730 (128596)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$160.01

Value

$154.74

PnL

-$5.28

Record

64%

10065-5621 (15686)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Under

Invested

$30.19

Value

$31.18

PnL

+$0.99

Record

53%

2616-2309 (4925)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.6

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

8098-6422 (14520)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

8836-8034 (16870)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

26313-24941 (51254)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.