Jazz vs. Spurs
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (57%) · Spurs at 90¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Spurs
7
Spurs 57%
1 arb excluded
$7.1K
-$10.24
90.6¢ → 89.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSpurs at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Spursavg 91¢ | $4.4K | $4.0K | -$21.88 | 46% 7287-8594 (15881) |
FE ferdinand2 | Spursavg 90¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$11.98 | 51% 991-958 (1949) |
FL Flaznorp | Spursavg 90¢ | $660.22 | $663.89 | +$3.67 | 51% 17604-16613 (34217) |
OD OddstormARB<$100 | Jazzavg 12.1¢ | $197.32 | $170.38 | -$26.94 | 48% 7156-7647 (14803) |
| └ Jazz leg | Jazzavg 12.1¢ | $130.56 | $102.51 | -$28.06 | |
| └ Spurs leg | Spursavg 89¢ | $66.75 | $67.88 | +$1.13 | |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Jazzavg 10¢ | $64.8 | $64.8 | -$3.24 | 50% 7247-7345 (14592) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Spursavg 90¢ | $43.02 | $43.26 | +$0.24 | 53% 6368-5753 (12121) |
 funnydayCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 10¢ | $20 | $20 | -$1 | 50% 3925-3907 (7832) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 10¢ | $9.52 | $9.52 | +$0 | 44% 6439-8045 (14484) |
nigiri99Invested
$4,377
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$21.88
Record
46%
7287-8594 (15881)
Invested
$2,155.22
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$11.98
Record
51%
991-958 (1949)
Invested
$660.22
Value
$663.89
PnL
+$3.67
Record
51%
17604-16613 (34217)
Invested
$197.32
Value
$170.38
PnL
-$26.94
Record
48%
7156-7647 (14803)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.8
Value
$64.8
PnL
-$3.24
Record
50%
7247-7345 (14592)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$43.02
Value
$43.26
PnL
+$0.24
Record
53%
6368-5753 (12121)
funnydayCTR<$100Invested
$20
Value
$20
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
3925-3907 (7832)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$9.52
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
6439-8045 (14484)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.