Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (14%) · Under at 54¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 9

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 14%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$163.16

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 7 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,429

Combined PnL+$289.33

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,514

Combined PnL-$126.18

Under — 14%Over — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nehcnehc	Underavg 49¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	+$289.33	61% 4522-2835 (7357)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$134.83	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$221.73
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.4¢	$821.16	$908.07	+$86.89
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 52¢	$897	$802.13	-$94.88	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$247.11	$257.9	+$10.79	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$126.95	$141.5	+$14.55
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$120.16	$116.41	-$3.76
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 51¢	$178.5	$162.75	-$15.75	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 51¢	$178.5	$162.75	-$15.75	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 50.3¢	$26.92	$27.07	+$0.15	57% 24685-18276 (42961)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$45.43	$21.12	+$0.23	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$4.83	$4.65	-$0.18	52% 9515-8627 (18142)

nehcnehc

Under

Invested

$3,150.06

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$289.33

Record

61%

4522-2835 (7357)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,331.83

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$134.83

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

Both legs:

Over$2,510.4451¢-$221.73

Under$821.1648.4¢+$86.89

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$897

Value

$802.13

PnL

-$94.88

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$247.11

Value

$257.9

PnL

+$10.79

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

Both legs:

Under$126.9548¢+$14.55

Over$120.1648¢-$3.76

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$178.5

Value

$162.75

PnL

-$15.75

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$178.5

Value

$162.75

PnL

-$15.75

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.92

Value

$27.07

PnL

+$0.15

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.43

Value

$21.12

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 7 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.