Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Timberwolves (84%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Jazz vs. Timberwolves

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (75%) · Jazz at 17¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Jazz17¢Timberwolves83¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 75%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$100.54

Smart Money Entry

15.8¢ → 16.5¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 84%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jazz17%

Timberwolves84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz9 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares14,652

Combined PnL+$104.59

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$78.27

Total Shares92

Combined PnL-$4.04

Jazz — 75%Timberwolves — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Jazzavg 15.7¢	$806.28	$845.66	+$39.38	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Jazzavg 16¢	$757.02	$780.68	+$23.66	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jazzavg 16¢	$299.99	$309.37	+$9.37	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
GC GC-PCTR	Jazzavg 15.5¢	$155	$165	+$10	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
NM NM-PCTR	Jazzavg 15.4¢	$129.49	$138.7	+$9.2	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Jazzavg 16¢	$95.44	$98.42	+$2.98	48% 405-446 (851)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Jazzavg 16¢	$53.3	$54.96	+$1.67	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Timberwolvesavg 81.8¢	$56.14	$53.39	-$2.75	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jazzavg 16.3¢	$41.02	$25.88	+$8.1	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
GA Gaditima<$100	Timberwolvesavg 80.1¢	$24.12	$22.88	-$1.25	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Jazzavg 16.8¢	$16.09	$9.56	+$0.22	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
AC Aceplus3<$100	Timberwolvesavg 84.7¢	$2.05	$2	-$0.05	58% 41-30 (71)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jazz

Invested

$806.28

Value

$845.66

PnL

+$39.38

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Jazz

Invested

$757.02

Value

$780.68

PnL

+$23.66

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

takeormakeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$299.99

Value

$309.37

PnL

+$9.37

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

GC-PCTR

Jazz

Invested

$155

Value

$165

PnL

+$10

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

NM-PCTR

Jazz

Invested

$129.49

Value

$138.7

PnL

+$9.2

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$95.44

Value

$98.42

PnL

+$2.98

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

sentrioCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$53.3

Value

$54.96

PnL

+$1.67

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Oddstorm<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$56.14

Value

$53.39

PnL

-$2.75

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$41.02

Value

$25.88

PnL

+$8.1

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Gaditima<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$24.12

Value

$22.88

PnL

-$1.25

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$16.09

Value

$9.56

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Aceplus3<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

41-30 (71)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 84%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.2%

16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$448.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

548.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.