Spread: Rockets (-37.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (60%) · Jazz at 99¢ · $847 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Jazz
5
Jazz 60%
$847.19
$0.4
94¢ → 99¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidJazz at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | Jazzavg 94¢ | $564 | $564 | +$0 | 68% 2629-1223 (3852) |
FO Forecastication2 | Jazzavg 94¢ | $230.87 | $230.87 | +$0 | 45% 224-276 (500) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Jazzavg 94¢ | $45.12 | $45.12 | -$0 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 6¢ | $6 | $6 | +$0 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 4¢ | $0.8 | $1.2 | +$0.4 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
Invested
$564
Value
$564
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
2629-1223 (3852)
Invested
$230.87
Value
$230.87
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
224-276 (500)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$45.12
Value
$45.12
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$6
Value
$6
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0.4
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.