Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 224.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 52¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 13

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$40.11

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares10,756

Combined PnL+$33.93

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares10,367

Combined PnL+$6.18

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51.2¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$32.78	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
nehcnehcCTR	Overavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$0	30% 34-78 (112)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 47¢	$188	$192	+$4	32% 534-1112 (1646)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48¢	$119.98	$122.48	+$2.5	52% 773-714 (1487)
IC ic4cream<$100	Underavg 51¢	$80.58	$81.37	+$0.79	4% 19-453 (472)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 51¢	$37.23	$37.6	+$0.37	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$25.9	$25.12	-$0.78	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 54¢	$5.1	$5	-$0.1	38% 492-810 (1302)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 50¢	$4.56	$4.65	+$0.09	54% 994-856 (1850)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$3.45	$3.85	+$0.4	54% 278-237 (515)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$0.82	$0.87	+$0.05	48% 2223-2408 (4631)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$5,380.48

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$32.78

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

nehcnehcCTR

Over

Invested

$4,730.93

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

30%

34-78 (112)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$188

Value

$192

PnL

+$4

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$119.98

Value

$122.48

PnL

+$2.5

Record

52%

773-714 (1487)

ic4cream<$100

Under

Invested

$80.58

Value

$81.37

PnL

+$0.79

Record

19-453 (472)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$37.23

Value

$37.6

PnL

+$0.37

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.9

Value

$25.12

PnL

-$0.78

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$5.1

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

38%

492-810 (1302)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$0.09

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

278-237 (515)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.87

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.