Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 223.5
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (70%) · Over at 51¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Over
10
Over 70%
$14.0K
$23.63
51.2¢ → 50.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
70% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51.2¢ | $6.7K | $6.8K | +$34.36 | 57% 3458-2629 (6087) |
AP AppleTiiimeCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $4.9K | $4.8K | -$50 | 53% 93-84 (177) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$37.7 | 48% 581-618 (1199) |
NM NM-P | Overavg 51¢ | $178.5 | $178.5 | +$0 | 59% 3584-2449 (6033) |
GC GC-P | Overavg 51¢ | $178.5 | $178.5 | +$0 | 30% 193-457 (650) |
PL pltrkr111CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $99.22 | $101.29 | +$2.07 | 4% 20-525 (545) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $38.22 | $37.85 | -$0.37 | 49% 1386-1434 (2820) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $16.51 | $16.51 | +$0 | 53% 1117-973 (2090) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $9.36 | $9.18 | -$0.18 | 52% 388-362 (750) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 38% 509-821 (1330) |
Invested
$6,717.29
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$34.36
Record
57%
3458-2629 (6087)
Invested
$4,900
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$50
Record
53%
93-84 (177)
Invested
$1,809.84
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$37.7
Record
48%
581-618 (1199)
Invested
$178.5
Value
$178.5
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3584-2449 (6033)
Invested
$178.5
Value
$178.5
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
193-457 (650)
Invested
$99.22
Value
$101.29
PnL
+$2.07
Record
4%
20-525 (545)
Invested
$38.22
Value
$37.85
PnL
-$0.37
Record
49%
1386-1434 (2820)
Invested
$16.51
Value
$16.51
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1117-973 (2090)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$9.36
Value
$9.18
PnL
-$0.18
Record
52%
388-362 (750)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
38%
509-821 (1330)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.