Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 218.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 63¢ · $375 held · ends Nov 13

Over63¢Under37¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

Total Value

$374.83

Combined PnL

$17.36

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 63¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over63%

Under37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$290.83

Total Shares473

Combined PnL+$13.16

Under4 traders

Total Value$84

Total Shares199

Combined PnL+$4.2

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87	Overavg 58¢	$213.58	$224.48	+$10.9	57% 49-37 (86)
AN Anon455<$100	Overavg 61¢	$61.29	$63.3	+$2.01	49% 302-309 (611)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 36.1¢	$56.64	$61.18	+$4.55	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 38.4¢	$19.89	$17.77	-$0.15	54% 1043-906 (1949)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$3.45	$3.2	-$0.25	19% 127-533 (660)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 56¢	$2.8	$3.05	+$0.25	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$1.8	$1.85	+$0.05	49% 1097-1151 (2248)

Zzzz87

Over

Invested

$213.58

Value

$224.48

PnL

+$10.9

Record

57%

49-37 (86)

Anon455<$100

Over

Invested

$61.29

Value

$63.3

PnL

+$2.01

Record

49%

302-309 (611)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.64

Value

$61.18

PnL

+$4.55

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.89

Value

$17.77

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

1043-906 (1949)

hi774cCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.25

Record

19%

127-533 (660)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$2.8

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.25

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

1097-1151 (2248)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.