Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (80%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 210.5

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (92%) · Under at 21¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Over80¢Under20¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 92%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$306.21

Smart Money Entry

17.3¢ → 20.5¢

+18% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Over 80%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares9,673

Combined PnL+$305.97

Over1 trader

Total Value$5

Total Shares6

Combined PnL+$0.24

Under — 92%Over — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GaditimaCTR	Underavg 17¢	$524.74	$633.89	+$109.15	46% 171-204 (375)
FO forecastication4CTR	Underavg 17.2¢	$411.58	$491.34	+$79.76	28% 105-276 (381)
poshposhCTR	Underavg 17.2¢	$313.92	$374.61	+$60.68	48% 621-673 (1294)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 18.1¢	$214.94	$243.36	+$28.42	48% 2320-2524 (4844)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$85.5	$92.25	+$6.75	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$35.79	$45.85	+$10.06	35% 235-434 (669)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 18.4¢	$40.82	$45.59	+$4.77	49% 1097-1151 (2248)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 17.5¢	$35	$41	+$6	53% 6285-5568 (11853)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$10	$10.25	+$0.25	34% 610-1204 (1814)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 74.2¢	$4.76	$5	+$0.24	47% 1724-1982 (3706)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 19.9¢	$4.45	$4.57	+$0.12	54% 1043-906 (1949)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$0.3	$0.31	+$0.01	19% 211-905 (1116)

GaditimaCTR

Under

Invested

$524.74

Value

$633.89

PnL

+$109.15

Record

46%

171-204 (375)

forecastication4CTR

Under

Invested

$411.58

Value

$491.34

PnL

+$79.76

Record

28%

105-276 (381)

poshposhCTR

Under

Invested

$313.92

Value

$374.61

PnL

+$60.68

Record

48%

621-673 (1294)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$214.94

Value

$243.36

PnL

+$28.42

Record

48%

2320-2524 (4844)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$85.5

Value

$92.25

PnL

+$6.75

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.79

Value

$45.85

PnL

+$10.06

Record

35%

235-434 (669)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.82

Value

$45.59

PnL

+$4.77

Record

49%

1097-1151 (2248)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35

Value

$41

PnL

+$6

Record

53%

6285-5568 (11853)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$10.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

34%

610-1204 (1814)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$4.76

Value

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

1724-1982 (3706)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.57

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

1043-906 (1949)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.01

Record

19%

211-905 (1116)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Over 80%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.