Spread: 76ers (-3.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (25%) · 76ers at 68¢ · $669 held · ends Nov 13

76ers68¢Raptors32¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 25%

Total Value

$668.79

Combined PnL

$13.09

Smart Money Entry

68.8¢ → 67.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers68%

Raptors33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors6 traders

Total Value$336.88

Total Shares1,029

Combined PnL+$17.54

76ers2 traders

Total Value$331.91

Total Shares489

Combined PnL-$4.44

Raptors — 75%76ers — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Raptorsavg 31.1¢	$260.91	$272.59	+$11.68	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
ZZ Zzzz87	76ersavg 69¢	$276	$272	-$4	58% 47-34 (81)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	76ersavg 68¢	$60.35	$59.91	-$0.44	61% 961-608 (1569)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 28¢	$67.41	$29.92	+$5.48	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 32¢	$21.44	$21.44	+$0	58% 3336-2404 (5740)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 31¢	$9.4	$9.7	+$0.3	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.63	+$0.02	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.6	+$0.05	33% 553-1135 (1688)

FlaznorpCTR

Raptors

Invested

$260.91

Value

$272.59

PnL

+$11.68

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Zzzz87

76ers

Invested

$276

Value

$272

PnL

-$4

Record

58%

47-34 (81)

darkumbreon88<$100

76ers

Invested

$60.35

Value

$59.91

PnL

-$0.44

Record

61%

961-608 (1569)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$67.41

Value

$29.92

PnL

+$5.48

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$21.44

Value

$21.44

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

3336-2404 (5740)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.