Spread: 76ers (-14.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (43%) · Raptors at 84¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

76ers16¢Raptors84¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$39.26

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 84¢

+14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers16%

Raptors84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$525.48

Total Shares590

Combined PnL+$45.52

76ers4 traders

Total Value$133.15

Total Shares674

Combined PnL-$6.25

Raptors — 43%76ers — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Raptorsavg 73¢	$388.67	$428.92	+$40.25	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	76ersavg 21.8¢	$376.31	$345.26	-$31.05	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 21.8¢	$210.31	$183.26	-$27.05
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 83¢	$166	$162	-$4
FL Flaznorp<$100	Raptorsavg 78.6¢	$87.27	$91.57	+$4.3	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	76ersavg 19.9¢	$54.61	$52.08	-$2.53	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	76ersavg 18.2¢	$52.87	$50.93	-$1.95	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 18.8¢	$80.59	$28.76	-$0.47	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Raptorsavg 67¢	$4.02	$4.98	+$0.96	45% 178-222 (400)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	76ersavg 35¢	$2.69	$1.38	-$1.31	48% 627-689 (1316)

RN1

Raptors

Invested

$388.67

Value

$428.92

PnL

+$40.25

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$376.31

Value

$345.26

PnL

-$31.05

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Both legs:

76ers$210.3121.8¢-$27.05

Raptors$16683¢-$4

Flaznorp<$100

Raptors

Invested

$87.27

Value

$91.57

PnL

+$4.3

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

38791873984189CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$54.61

Value

$52.08

PnL

-$2.53

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

takeormakeCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$52.87

Value

$50.93

PnL

-$1.95

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$80.59

Value

$28.76

PnL

-$0.47

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

Forecastication2<$100

Raptors

Invested

$4.02

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.96

Record

45%

178-222 (400)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.69

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$1.31

Record

48%

627-689 (1316)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.