Spread: Raptors (-10.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (56%) · 76ers at 90¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Raptors11¢76ers89¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$67.11

Smart Money Entry

85.4¢ → 89.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Raptors11%

76ers90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers5 traders

Total Value$946.59

Total Shares1,100

Combined PnL-$0.07

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$51.38

Total Shares511

Combined PnL-$67.04

76ers — 56%Raptors — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	76ersavg 82.9¢	$445.62	$450.66	+$5.04	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	76ersavg 70¢	$261.89	$386.03	+$124.14	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 13¢	$95.29	$219.43	+$124.14
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 70¢	$166.6	$166.6	+$0
ZZ Zzzz87	76ersavg 94¢	$329.94	$321.17	-$8.77	59% 54-38 (92)
PA Pan9X<$100	76ersavg 83.1¢	$76.93	$80.6	+$3.66	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
AN Anon455<$100	76ersavg 70¢	$66.5	$66.5	+$0	49% 303-310 (613)
RN1CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 30¢	$99.9	$34.96	-$64.94	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
38 38791873984189<$100	76ersavg 84¢	$27.67	$27.67	+$0	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 6.9¢	$7.85	$9.69	+$1.84	28% 110-277 (387)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 16¢	$5.28	$3.47	-$1.82	58% 3338-2406 (5744)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 17.4¢	$5.38	$3.26	-$2.13	49% 1386-1434 (2820)

6512395314597884

76ers

Invested

$445.62

Value

$450.66

PnL

+$5.04

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

FlaznorpARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$261.89

Value

$386.03

PnL

+$124.14

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

Both legs:

Raptors$95.2913¢+$124.14

76ers$166.670¢+$0

Zzzz87

76ers

Invested

$329.94

Value

$321.17

PnL

-$8.77

Record

59%

54-38 (92)

Pan9X<$100

76ers

Invested

$76.93

Value

$80.6

PnL

+$3.66

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

Anon455<$100

76ers

Invested

$66.5

Value

$66.5

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

RN1CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$99.9

Value

$34.96

PnL

-$64.94

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

38791873984189<$100

76ers

Invested

$27.67

Value

$27.67

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$7.85

Value

$9.69

PnL

+$1.84

Record

28%

110-277 (387)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$5.28

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$1.82

Record

58%

3338-2406 (5744)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$5.38

Value

$3.26

PnL

-$2.13

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.