Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lakers, while the market favors Raptors (53%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (80%) · Lakers at 48¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
5
Lakers 80%
1 arb excluded
$4.3K
-$21.18
48¢ → 47.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Lakersavg 47.8¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | -$2.33 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Raptorsavg 52¢ | $342.75 | $346.05 | +$3.3 | 53% 615-541 (1156) |
 fyrskenCTR | Lakersavg 50¢ | $350 | $329 | -$21 | 49% 290-305 (595) |
HE HerdoniaARB<$100 | Lakersavg 48.8¢ | $323.55 | $318.43 | -$5.12 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 48.8¢ | $223.79 | $217.71 | -$6.08 | |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 52¢ | $99.76 | $100.72 | +$0.96 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Lakersavg 50¢ | $46.88 | $45.97 | -$0.91 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Lakersavg 50¢ | $5 | $4.75 | -$0.25 | 52% 7503-6793 (14296) |
Invested
$3,213.37
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$2.33
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$342.75
Value
$346.05
PnL
+$3.3
Record
53%
615-541 (1156)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$350
Value
$329
PnL
-$21
Record
49%
290-305 (595)
Invested
$323.55
Value
$318.43
PnL
-$5.12
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Both legs:
Invested
$46.88
Value
$45.97
PnL
-$0.91
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.75
PnL
-$0.25
Record
52%
7503-6793 (14296)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.