Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 227.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 45¢ · $894 held · ends Nov 15

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$894.42

Combined PnL

-$3.14

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 44.5¢

-5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$727.37

Total Shares1,566

Combined PnL-$5.86

Under5 traders

Total Value$166.72

Total Shares314

Combined PnL+$2.72

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Overavg 46.6¢	$566.12	$570.69	+$4.57	48% 131-144 (275)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 52¢	$129.67	$132.16	+$2.49	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$88.68	$83.96	-$4.72	43% 561-753 (1314)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$78.43	$72.71	-$5.72	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 52.7¢	$15.8	$15.9	+$0.1	56% 679-534 (1213)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 53¢	$13.24	$13.24	-$0	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.64	$2.76	+$0.12	49% 548-579 (1127)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.65	+$0	43% 867-1151 (2018)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Over

Invested

$566.12

Value

$570.69

PnL

+$4.57

Record

48%

131-144 (275)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$129.67

Value

$132.16

PnL

+$2.49

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

GC-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.68

Value

$83.96

PnL

-$4.72

Record

43%

561-753 (1314)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$78.43

Value

$72.71

PnL

-$5.72

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$15.8

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$13.24

Value

$13.24

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100

Under

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

548-579 (1127)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.