Spread: Spurs (-18.5)
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (22%) · Jazz at 60¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Jazz
9
Jazz 22%
$15.3K
$4.92
59.9¢ → 59.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidJazz at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-38 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
22% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Jazzavg 59.9¢ | $9.3K | $9.2K | -$67.4 | 53% 1923-1675 (3598) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Spursavg 40¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | +$68.6 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
HI hi774cCTR | Spursavg 40¢ | $543.13 | $549.92 | +$6.79 | 26% 249-695 (944) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Spursavg 44¢ | $44 | $40 | -$4 | 38% 1375-2208 (3583) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Spursavg 40¢ | $34 | $34.43 | +$0.43 | 47% 1204-1385 (2589) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Spursavg 40¢ | $21.7 | $10.27 | +$0.57 | 50% 2197-2203 (4400) |
SU SunlineTicker<$100 | Jazzavg 59¢ | $7.4 | $7.46 | +$0.06 | 69% 1738-777 (2515) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Spursavg 41¢ | $4.17 | $4.07 | -$0.1 | 49% 4712-4983 (9695) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Spursavg 41¢ | $2.05 | $2.03 | -$0.02 | 41% 1195-1702 (2897) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$9,290
Value
$9.2K
PnL
-$67.4
Record
53%
1923-1675 (3598)
Invested
$5,366.3
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$68.6
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
Invested
$543.13
Value
$549.92
PnL
+$6.79
Record
26%
249-695 (944)
Invested
$44
Value
$40
PnL
-$4
Record
38%
1375-2208 (3583)
Invested
$34
Value
$34.43
PnL
+$0.43
Record
47%
1204-1385 (2589)
Invested
$21.7
Value
$10.27
PnL
+$0.57
Record
50%
2197-2203 (4400)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$7.46
PnL
+$0.06
Record
69%
1738-777 (2515)
Invested
$4.17
Value
$4.07
PnL
-$0.1
Record
49%
4712-4983 (9695)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$0.02
Record
41%
1195-1702 (2897)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.