Spread: Spurs (-17.5)

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (15%) · Jazz at 57¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Spurs43¢Jazz57¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 15%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$18.84

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 57.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs43%

Jazz57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,826

Combined PnL+$28.01

Spurs11 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares6,249

Combined PnL-$46.85

Jazz — 15%Spurs — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-85 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (12 on Spurs) disagree here.

ctrSpurs 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 92% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Jazzavg 57¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$28.69	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
HI hi774cCTR	Spursavg 43¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$21.34	26% 249-695 (944)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Spursavg 43¢	$184.9	$182.75	-$2.15	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
NM NM-PCTR	Spursavg 43¢	$150.5	$148.75	-$1.75	59% 3960-2731 (6691)
GC GC-PCTR	Spursavg 43¢	$150.5	$148.75	-$1.75	43% 561-753 (1314)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Spursavg 45¢	$124.8	$116.48	-$8.32	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
38 38791873984189CTR	Spursavg 45¢	$139.33	$98.43	-$5.89	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Spursavg 44.4¢	$79.67	$76.18	-$3.49	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Jazzavg 57¢	$70.32	$69.64	-$0.68	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Spursavg 42¢	$36.21	$36.64	+$0.43	41% 1195-1702 (2897)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Spursavg 45.5¢	$18.2	$16.8	-$1.4	56% 679-534 (1213)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Spursavg 45¢	$16.66	$15.73	-$0.94	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Spursavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.1	-$0.25	43% 867-1151 (2018)

VeryLucky888

Jazz

Invested

$3,270.61

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$28.69

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

hi774cCTR

Spurs

Invested

$1,835

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$21.34

Record

26%

249-695 (944)

FlaznorpCTR

Spurs

Invested

$184.9

Value

$182.75

PnL

-$2.15

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

NM-PCTR

Spurs

Invested

$150.5

Value

$148.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3960-2731 (6691)

GC-PCTR

Spurs

Invested

$150.5

Value

$148.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

43%

561-753 (1314)

LightParadoxCTR

Spurs

Invested

$124.8

Value

$116.48

PnL

-$8.32

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

38791873984189CTR

Spurs

Invested

$139.33

Value

$98.43

PnL

-$5.89

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$79.67

Value

$76.18

PnL

-$3.49

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Jazz

Invested

$70.32

Value

$69.64

PnL

-$0.68

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

sentrioCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$36.21

Value

$36.64

PnL

+$0.43

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$18.2

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$1.4

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$16.66

Value

$15.73

PnL

-$0.94

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.25

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-85 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jazz) and the top 1000 (12 on Spurs) disagree here.

ctrSpurs 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spurs 92% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.